The term peak oil has become shorthand to many, describing the time when world oil production peaks and begins its decline.  After the occurrence of peak oil, as production declines and demand continues to increase, oil shortage will become more pronounced each year.

The important concept to grasp is that oil shortage and all the attendant problems will occur not when all the oil is gone, but when production can no longer keep up with demand, and this will be soon.  Whether peak oil and the beginning of declining production occur in 2005, 2007, or 2020, we must realize we have been procrastinating on developing robust oil alternatives.  Peak oil will happen very soon relative to the long-lead times necessary to identify oil alternatives and build the huge industries required.

How can we ensure peak oil survival?  Our efforts should include both R&D and fuel conservation.  Our R&D effort should be well organized and focused on sound long-range oil alternatives, rather than temporary fixes.  Oil supplies 38.7% of the world's energy and won't be easy to replace.  Conserving fuels aggressively will give us more time to develop the alternatives.